Prediction of Dan Martin vs Keegan Rice at Drummondville Challenger 11-12-25

• Second Serve Performance: Dan Martin has secured 45.96% of points on their second serves in the last six months, outperforming Keegan Rice, who has won 39.83%.
• Return Game: Dan Martin edges out Keegan Rice in winning points on opponents' second serves, with 45.12% compared to Rice's 44.61%. On first serve returns, however, Rice performs better with 32.06%, while Martin is at 23.96%.
• Pressure Handling: Dan Martin has a higher breakpoint save percentage, saving 58.57% compared to Keegan Rice's 47.06%.
• Annual Performance: While Dan Martin has a match win rate of 51.47% over the past year, Keegan Rice tops this with a win rate of 66.67%.
• Surface Specialization: Dan Martin excels on clay with a 55% win rate, whereas grass isn't his strength at 0%. Keegan Rice shows a preference for hard surfaces, winning 55%, but performs poorly on indoor hard at 20%.
• Player Level: Martin has mostly competed at lower-tier Futures/Satellites/ITF $10K events, winning 57.14% of those matches. In contrast, Rice has captured 73.33% at similar levels.
• Opponent Quality: Dan Martin has faced opponents with an average ranking of 414.29, while Keegan Rice's opponents have been higher-ranked, averaging 270.86.
• Deciding Sets: In matches extending to a deciding set, Martin has a win rate of 47%, slightly higher than Rice's 40%.
• Breakpoint Conversion: Recently, Dan Martin has converted 33.90% of his breakpoint chances, whereas Keegan Rice has a conversion rate of 38.20%.

Editorial Prediction (November 11, 2025, UTC):

As we evaluate the upcoming tennis match, several factors stand out. Dan Martin shows superior performance in second serve success and pressure situations, two critical aspects of match play. His stronger breakpoint save percentage could be vital if the match becomes tight and breakpoints are in play.

Keegan Rice, on the other hand, has a higher match win rate over the past year and has faced relatively stronger competition. His better performance in first serve returns and breakpoint conversions gives him an edge in creating scoring opportunities.

While Dan Martin has the advantage in certain serving and pressure metrics, his performance against stronger opponents and on varied surfaces might be limiting. Keegan Rice, with a better track record against higher-ranked players and better consistency on hard surfaces, seems poised to perform well.

Given the data, Keegan Rice appears to hold a slight edge in this match-up, indicating that he is more likely to come out on top in this contest.